I don’t believe in…

Posted: January 19, 2011 in Fantasy Baseball

Jose Bautista. His numbers last year were simply too far above anything he’d ever done before. He has pop, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30 HR, but I think a best-case scenario is .240, 35 HR, 90 RBI, maybe 5 SB.

Clay Buchholz. At least not buying what he did last year. 28 starts, 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. No way. But he is still a good young arm, with a team that will give him lots of run support. I could see 17-11, with a 3.30 ERA.

Aubrey Huff. Expect more 2000-2009 Huff than 2010. That means around .275, 15-20 HR and 70-80 RBI. He might score 70 runs, but that’s Huff. And I expect him to revert to that, if not fall farther due to age.

Carlos Gonzalez. Last year CarGo lit up the world to the tune of .336, 34 HR, 117 RBI, 26 SB. But 40 walks and 135 strikeouts, not to mention a .384 BABIP means the average is absolutely a fluke. He’s still a top-10 OF, but I think you draft him expecting .290, maybe .300. 25 HR/25 SB. 90-100 RBI.

Prince Fielder’s off-year. At 26, the man still has learning to do. He went for .288, 50 HR and 119 RBI at 23 years old. I dont believe .261, 32, 83 is any kind of standard. In fact, I think Fielder might be one of the most safe 40-HR bets in the league. I think his average will go back to around .280, and with Braun and Weeks running around the bases, I think he knocks in 100.

Josh Hamilton’s health. He would be the top outfielder in fantasy baseball if he didn’t have an injury history. And I don’t think he will stay healthy this season. If I had to guess, I’d say he plays around 120-130 games. In that time, draft him expecting around .300, 15-20 HR and maybe 70-80 RBI.

Ichiro Suzuki as elite OF. He’ll be 37 during this season. He will bat over .300 and will steal 30 bases. But people talk as if he was a 40-steal lock EVER. He stole 56 his rookie year, and hasn’t topped 45 since. In fact, since 2002 he’s only been over 40 steals three times. His runs scored have diminished four years in a row, meaning he’s not scoring from second (or first) as often. He hadn’t been under 100 runs scored until 2009 and has now posted two years of 88 and 74.

There are some guys I’m completely torn on, and we’ll get to those soon.

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