Mock Draft Trends- Fact or Fiction

Posted: February 13, 2011 in Fantasy Baseball

There is a plethora of websites where you can practice drafting your team. In my first couple weeks, I’ve noticed some trends developing and some widely accepted beliefs that don’t entirely hold true. Some positions aren’t as weak as they appear, some are weaker. And some guys just seem to end up on my team regardless of which draft position I start out with. These are the things that might be useful notes to make as you prepare your draft-day cheat sheet.

FICTION– “First base is stacked”- It’s one thing to say there are many quality first basemen, it’s another thing altogether to say there are a lot of first basemen that I would feel comfortable with as my starting man on opening day. Quite the contrary.Unless I end up with the #1 overall pick, I won’t own Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, or Joey Votto because I’d rather use a first round pick on a 2B, SS, or 3B. I also tend to prefer young guys, so I will probably never own Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Mark Texeira and Kevin Youkilis. So I seem to always end up with either Prince Fielder in the second, or Kendry Morales or Justin Morneau in the fifth round. After those three, there isn’t much I’d feel good about as my starting first baseman. I think Fielder will get back in the 40 HR group, with a respectable average. At 26, he already has one 50 HR year in his pocket.

FACT– “Pitching is DEEEEEEEP!!!!!!”- I’ve always been a proponent of a balanced lineup. I almost always kept about the same number of pitchers and hitters through the draft. But this year, I just can’t seem to justify taking a pitcher in the first four rounds. If I can fill 2B, 3B and SS, while grabbing Andrew McCutchen (my top target this season) in the first four rounds, I feel fantastic. In 12-team mocks, I’m getting Josh Johnson, Jered Weaver, Mat Latos and David Price in the 6th, 7th, 8th and later rounds. So fill the shallow spots first.

FICTION– “Third base is the shallowest position on the field”- Not this year. Eliminate the top tier of David Wright and Evan Longoria at 3B, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki at SS, and Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley at 2B. Depth at a position is about the guys below the elites that I wouldn’t mind starting on opening day. At second base, I wouldn’t mind using Kelly Johnson, Rickie Weeks, or Aaron Hill. I might settle for Gordon Beckham if I had to. At shortstop, if I don’t get one of the top two in the first round, and I miss out on Jose Reyes, I’m in trouble. I would probably wait a long time for someone like Starlin Castro, Erick Aybar, or Ian Desmond, and I wouldn’t be thrilled to have them in my starting lineup. At third base, if I miss out on Wright and Longoria, I can get Pablo Sandoval, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Stewart, and I’m a Mark Reynolds buyer (40 HR, .240 AVG, 10 SB). Reach for one of the top three shortstops, not for third basemen.

FACT– “Manny Ramirez will be useful this year”- I never thought I would be recommending him, but as the full time DH, Manny is still one of the most talented pure hitters in baseball history. He has the prettiest swing in this generation, and with 500 at bats, I’d take the over on 20 HR and 80 RBI, with a solid .280ish AVG.

FICTION– “Carl Crawford will be BETTER in Boston”- First of all, I don’t spend high picks on one-category studs so I will never own Crawford, but I think he is in for a downturn this season. With questionable offensive production in Tampa Bay, Crawford has a constant green light on the bases.With the massive power behind him, he will be on a leash, to avoid running into outs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him steal less than 45 bases, AKA his lowest career total other than the injury-shortened 2008.

FACT– “Outfield is deep, but top-heavy”- I never use rankings for drafting. I use tiers. As I mock, I’m thinking of guys to group together. There is an immensely talented group in the 5-7 rounds that are fairly comparable in preseason value. Andre Ethier, BJ Upton, Jay Bruce, Mike Stanton, Drew Stubbs, Colby Rasmus, Jason Heyward, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter Pence, and Chris Young. I will likely end up with at least one of those guys, if not two, because I take infield early, so I usually need outfielders in the middle rounds. So who are the elites? Well there are ZERO outfielders I’d take in the first round and Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday are the only guys I’d consider in the second. Because the top guys all have some very serious questions, and I emphasize safety early. You’ve seen my thoughts on Crawford. Carlos Gonzalez had an unrepeatable batting average. He is a 20/20 guy for sure, but that can be had later on. Josh Hamilton is as health-risky as they come. People seem to be forgetting Matt Kemp is coming off a .249 season. Listen to this and tell me why Kemp is SO overdrafted. Kemp 2010: .249, 28 HR, 19 SB. Chris Young 2010: .257, 27, 28. I’ll take Young four rounds later. Justin Upton… I know, I know “potential” this and “upside” that. He has never played 140 games, only had 20 HR once and 20 SB once, and batted over .275 once. I can get his numbers a lot later. After Braun and Holliday, my #3 OF, and the last one I put in the top tier is Andrew McCutchen. First two years in the league he has batted exactly .286, while 12–>16 HR, and 22–>33 SB. At 24, he is still growing, and 20/40 might be a basement for his 2011 year.

Friends, when I say I will never own a guy, its not because he shouldnt be owned. Its simply because I can get his numbers later than he will last. That’s the same reason I will never draft Joe Mauer. He is easily the best catcher, but I can get his HR, RBI and SB much later, and I don’t take one-category studs in the first couple rounds, where Mauer gets taken. People forget that Mauer is really a one-category stud. You draft him for his .320+ average. I’d rather spend that second round pick on fielder and get .280, 45, 130 and that third round pick on Jose Reyes and get .300, 13, and 50+ SB. It’s all about value. That’s why I’ll end up with a catcher from the tier of Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli (25 HR, 80 RBI, and AVG won’t kill you).

One more note, if you missed out on those elite 1B, take Adam Lind in the middle rounds. He will have 1B eligibility in the first couple weeks and I expect .280, 30, 90 from him at least.

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s