Week 1 Recap- DO NOT OVERREACT!!!

Posted: September 12, 2011 in Fantasy Football

The most common mistake people make is bailing on their stars, or making lopsided trades for week one producers. Do not go crazy. An even-keeled owner, like me, will float names like Ben Tate on the trade market, hoping some overeager owner will look at his week one production and trade me someone who, over the course of the season, will easily be better,

First and foremost, Cam Newton was playing the Cardinals. There will be people stumbling over themselves to own him this week, and trading quality players for him. Newton is still a rookie, and rookies, let alone #1 overall picks, do not produce reliable fantasy football numbers. He is fun to watch, no question, but I wouldn’t want him anywhere near my starting lineup for week 2.

As long as Arian Foster is out, Ben Tate will be the best runner in Houston, and a top-15 running back. That’s as long as Foster is out, which might not even be this coming Sunday. We don’t know. I own him, and I won’t be trading him cheap, but keep in mind his value MIGHT never get higher than it is right now.

The Dallas receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, along with Jason Witten will be optons 1A, 1B and 1C for QB Tony Romo, which is good and bad. It’s good for Witten, as he might end up the second most targeted tight end in football (no one looks for the big guy as much as Philip Rivers for Antonio Gates) but Bryant and Austin, while both possibly being top-15 WR, will keep each other from being the top-5 guys they are each capable of being alone. Expect 150 yards and one or two scores between them, just don’t be surprised if one week Austin has 90 of that, and the next week Bryant has 90 of that.

The Colts offense as a whole, is in trouble this year if Kerry Collins is under center. They won’t always look as bad as Sunday, but that was the Houston Texans defense. Imagine what they do against tougher opponents? Reggie Wayne had 11 targets and should get plenty of numbers, but Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and even Dallas Clark might need to fall a little in your rankings. I still like Clark as a starting tight end in any league, and I think Garcon has some potential as Wayne doesn’t have the stamina he used to, but temper expectations.

Mike Tolbert is the back to own in San Diego. No question. He had 12 rushes for one touchdown and nine receptions for two more.

Don’t be suckered into paying heavy for Cedric Benson. Many of his yards were accumulated in the fourth quarter when the Bengals were trying to kill the clock and Cleveland’s D-Line was being pushed back, and he broke a long touchdown late.

Fred Jackson is still one of the more underrated backs in football, topping 100 yards. The touchdowns may be few, but he was a bargain on draft day.

Chris Johnson… nine carries for 24 yards. A typical day for CJ2K when he doesn’t break a long one. Some days he will have 8 carries for 20 yards and one carry for 87 yards and a touchdown and on Monday morning, it looks like he did just fine.

Carolina’s run game will continue to baffle people. Deangelo Williams had 12 carries for 30 yards and one reception on two targets while Jonathan Stewart had seven carries for 26 yards and two receptions on three targets. Stewart is the better value.

Shonn Greene and Ladanian Tomlinson each had 11 touches. Tomlinson had 89 total yards to Greene’s 33.

One guy for deeper leagues to watch, Dexter McCluster had nine touches. It looks like the Chiefs want to get the ball in his hands.

Another platoon to watch, James Starks had 12 carries, Ryan Grant had nine plus one reception.

Matthew Stafford and Frank Gore… two names you don’t expect to hear in the same sentence, but expect both to be top-10 performers at their positions WHEN HEALTHY. Actually, this year, I give Stafford a better shot at 16 than Gore.

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw four touchdowns. Only four QBs threw as many as three. Maybe some deep league value there, though the Bills are unlikely to score that many times again this year. Another value QB Rex Grossman threw over 300 yards and a couple scores.

The mantra for the week is DO NOT OVERREACT!!! I don’t care if you got blown out or blew someone out, if you LOVE a certain player or HATE a certain player. We still don’t know anything. When shooters go to a range, they need three shots to form a grouping and then they make adjustments. One game doesn’t produce a pattern. When considering trade offers, think about if you would have done it before the season when you read my blog and promised to only make a trade if it clearly made your team better.

Also remember, AJ Green had one reception that made his entire day look good, and that reception was because the defense wasn’t paying attention and the corner didn’t get out of the huddle in time to get to the edge and cover him. Don’t look at the stat line alone and go crazy. Patience is the name of the game.

 

 

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Comments
  1. Agree with you about Cam Newton. He was spectacular to say the least, but it was against the Cards and his is still a rookie.

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