Archive for the ‘Fantasy Football’ Category

First off, let me say last week I posted three or four times and then found out I had some computer issues and it didnt stick around, so those are gone and I’m not sure why. But life goes on.

I won this week but it was UGLY. Remember, I own Fred Jackson and Adrian Peterson? Well they are both hurt, and neither is looking good for the next week. The upside is both should be back in time for fantasy playoffs, so that’s good because I’m already pretty much in the playoffs.

I do own CJ Spiller and I put a FAAB bid on Toby Gerhart. I also own Ben Tate and Brandon Jacobs so I should be okay on running backs to fill in until those two are back.

I’m 9-2 and still have the #1 seed right now. But the point right now is making the playoffs and getting everyone healthy for them.

First off, let me apologize for my hiatus last week. I took a trip home to see family over the weekend so I needed to get ahead at work, and thus ran out of time to post. But I’m back, and after eight wins in a row, I’m handed my second loss of the season. It was a combination of my opponent’s good luck and my bad luck, which is usually how it goes in fantasy sports.

Against me, the Cowboys defense scored 23 points, Larry Fitzgerald had 41 and Jacoby Jones had 25. Meanwhile, Steve Smith and Pierre Garcon combined for only 14. However, going into Monday night I had some chance. I was down by 81, but had Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson to go, both capable of 40-point games. Rodgers did his part, carving up Minnesota to score me 40 exactly. But the Vikings were forced to pass too much and Adrian never took off. I lost 181-154.

Now at 8-2, I am tied for first place in my division, and still probably have the most talented team in the league. With the Colts on bye, the time has come to change kickers. I’ll be dropping Adam Viniateri for a new kicker and I’m considering a change at defense with the Titans available, who have a weak schedule for the week 14-16 playoff run.

Fantasy Football Q&A

Posted: November 3, 2011 in Fantasy Football

Its Thursday and time for another fantasy football Q&A. Let’s dive into the Fantasy X-Man inbox and see what’s happening.

From Jane: For Week 8, who should I start (2RB):Gore, Mathews, Sproles. My WR’s are hopeless (2WR & WR/T): Desean Jackson, Victor, Cruz, Eric Decker, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Marshall. THANKS SO MUCH!

Well Jane, Gore is the easy call. I think Mathews and Sproles are matchup guys. Personally, I’m lower on both than most people, but it depends who they are playing. As for the WR, I’d play Jackson and Marshall… and for the third spot, Decker, Cruz and Thomas might also be matchup guys. If I was ranking flex players, they’d probably all be in the same general area, though I might have Cruz the highest with the injury to Nicks.
From Frank, PA: How long does TT keep his job?
This is the one and only Tebow questions I will take today because it is the only relevant question. He will put up fantasy points until he is benched. I think he competes enough with Oakland to earn a couple more weeks at least. I’d say from week 12 onward, we might see Tebow and Brady Quinn mixed in.
From Jason, Toronto: Can you name some sleepers and busts for the rest of the season?
I like the thinking. I’ll call Philip Rivers a sleeper because people seem to be giving up and I wouldn’t yet. Roy Helu will get his chance at the head of the Redskins backfield, though I wouldn’t trust anything on that team. Jake Ballard is emerging as a reliable tight end. I think Emmanuel Sanders deserves more attention than he’s getting. I’ve also got a feeling the Eagles defense is getting ready for a dominant run, call it a hunch. As far as busts, I think Frank Gore will miss at least a week or two, so you might call that a bust. Michael Turner’s work load is bound to catch up with him. As far as the hype has gone on Demarco Murray, call him a sell-high candidate.
From Jamaal, Iowa: Is TJ Houshmanzadeh useful now that he is reunited with Carson Palmer?
I say no. I think Carson is still being overrated. In fact, with Darren McFadden hurt, that offense might struggle mightily with Denver this week. Darrius Heyward-Bey looks like the top receiver in town. The rest are barely ownable. And I’d want Ford before Housh.
From Martin, NYC: With Montario Hardesty hurt, Peyton Hillis HAS to do SOMETHING right?
I’m not so sure, but he will get the carries, so maybe he produces in a volume sense. He doesn’t look as powerful as he was last year, and he’s coming off his own injury, but maybe within the top-15 backs if he’s getting 20-25 touches per game.
From Andre, Kentucky: Chris Johnson… I’m sure I’m not the only one asking…
No, Andre, you’re not. My stance on CJ0K is you can’t do anything but hold. The upside is too high to drop him. But his value is too low to trade him. And he’s not giving you enough in any one week to start him. Case in point, two weeks ago I offered Mario Manningham straight up for him. It was declined. No way would I do that deal now. Bench him and hope. But honestly, it may take an offseason to right the ship. That being said, I think he might be a great draft value next year.
From Jessilyn, New Mexico: Will I suddenly find myself without the services of Aaron Rodgers in week 16 or 17 in fantasy playoffs?
The best thing you can do is root for the other NFC teams to keep winning and/or the Pack to stay undefeated. The only scenario in which they would bench him, in my opinion, is in week 17 at 14-1 or 13-2 if they’ve locked up home field advantage. I guess I could see him only playing half of week 16 if they’ve locked it up and are NOT undefeated, but I can’t see them resting him a full two weeks knowing he’d then have a first round bye as well. Besides, I wouldn’t worry about that yet. First focus on GETTING to that round of your playoffs and then deal with possible holes.
That’s it for now guys. Thanks for all the questions. Sorry if I didn’t get to yours.

Facing off against the only other 6-1 team in the league, this was a battle of the top two in the most recent league power rankings. While it’s true he had Matt Forte on a bye, I had Aaron Rodgers on bye too. I won the same way I’ve been winning all year. 43 from Adrian Peterson and 39 from Fred Jackson led all scorers in the matchup. As bad as Tim Tebow was on the field, his rushing yards and late passing touchdown raked together a respectable 24 points in Rodgers’ place.

My deal sending Matthew Stafford for Steve Smith is paying off well as Smith scored 28 this week and I won 195-133 to climb to 7-1. Even Dallas Clark scored 15 for me.

My last five opponents are a combined 14-26, so it’s not out of the question that after a week one loss, I could go 12-0 going into the playoffs which start week 14. I ALMOST hope that doesn’t happen. I’d rather my guys have one or two terrible weeks BEFORE playoffs start than go 12-1 and then break down in the first round. But for now, I’ll take the win and keep trucking.

Q&A

Posted: October 28, 2011 in Fantasy Football

For everyone who asked, I am working on new positional rankings that will be up on the blog hopefully early next week.

Fantasy X-Man,

What is the upside/downside to Demarco Murray now that he’s arrived? -Jason, Maine

Jason,

The upside is he keeps the starting job with 20+ touches per game and averages 90 yards and a touchdown, plus a reception or two per week. So I’d say top-15, borderline top-10 back. The downside is Felix Jones comes back from injury and retakes the starting job and Murray gets 8-10 touches per game and you end up praying for a touchdown.

Fantasy X-Man,

Should I be dealing Chris Johnson or Rashard Mendenhall right now? What could I get back? -Francis, Minnesota

Francis,

I wouldn’t. I think you’d be selling at the lowest possible value and I doubt you could get much of anything beyond a mid-to-low WR2.

Fantasy X-Man,

Is Chris Johnson pulling an Adam Dunn? -Raymond, Chicago

Raymond,

The comparisons aren’t without some merits, but no I don’t see that because of the age difference. You know, on the Chris Johnson thing, I think the man himself said it well when he said we shouldn’t judge him unless he’s in the open field and people are catching him from behind. We haven’t seen him in the open field, so we don’t know if that incredible speed is still there. Gut call, I think he’s a top-15 RB rest of the season. But keep in mind, no one would be shocked if he was THE #1 overall fantasy player from here on out. That’s the upside.

Fantasy X-Man,

Montario Hardest gets __% of the carries in Cleveland this week and from here on out? Matt, Topeka

Matt,

I’ll say 85% this week and 45% rest of the season, BUT to split it up, I’d say he gets maybe 40% for the next three or four weeks and closer to 60-70% for the last few weeks (aka fantasy playoffs).

Fantasy X-Man,

Where do you have Tebow among QBs this week? I’ve got Stafford and looking at options if he doesn’t go this week. -Wolverine, NYC

Logan,

I have Tebow seventh among QBs this week, behind Stafford, but ahead of Shaun Hill. I think Stafford plays and does just fine against Denver.

Fantasy X-Man,

I know you talked about, during baseball season, Francisco Liriano is a guy you hate to own, but always seem to end up owning. Is there someone like that in football? -Marcus, Louisiana

Marcus,

I hate to say it, but it seems to be Dez Bryant. I ended up trading for him, and then trading him away in two different leagues, and I drafted him this year despite not really liking him, and I said that in the draft post. But he’s emerging in Dallas so he shouldn’t be as volatile as Liriano. Marshawn Lynch is a guy I’ve owned a lot too, but I haven’t yet this year.

Fantasy X-Man,
They were having a debate on ESPN.com the other day about Cam Newton vs. Andrew Luck… I was curious where you’d fall on that. -Jennifer, Los Angeles
Jennifer,
I’d want Luck. I think they’re both special players, but I’ll take the guy who every scout agrees on coming out of college versus the one they were completely divided on.
Fantasy X-Man,
I was looking at your preseason Love/Hate. You hated rookies (Dalton, Newton, Green, Julio Jones, Demarco Murray seem to be doing just fine). You also hated Michael Vick who is playing pretty good. And you loved Tashard Choice, of all people. What gives? -Roger, Washington
Roger,
I also loved Matthew Stafford, Fred Jackson, Montario Hardesty and Willis McGahee. And I don’t think I was wrong about Vick considering his injuries. There’s still time for him to miss a few games. You have to take the bad with the good.
That’s all for now, folks. Thanks for the all the questions. Sorry if I didn’t get to yours.

 

Lots of injuries this last week and the breakout of one Cowboys running back make for an interesting roller coaster of values.

SNAKE- Every Matthew Stafford owner sat shaking their heads when he limped off the field with an apparent knee injury on Sunday. To everyone’s relief the injury was to the ankle, and it looks as if he will play this week, but don’t forget he is still somewhat of an injury risk.

LADDER- Demarco Murray set a new Cowboys rushing record on Sunday, causing many to think he might be THE GUY regardless of Felix Jones‘ injury status. Don’t be fooled. If Murray has another good week, then he might earn a platoon role, but the organization loves Jones. Murray is a classic sell-high.

SNAKE- Chris Johnson is looking terrible. Now, I’m stubborn and still think there’s something there. I’ll put it this way, I’d be willing to trade for him at the cost of a WR2 or a flex type player, if the CJ owner was so disgruntled. I’m thinking someone in the Mario Manningham, Shonn Greene area.

LADDER- Maurice Morris/Keiland Williams look like the new platoon in Detroit because…

SNAKE- Jahvid Best might very well be done for the year. I would be dealing before such a fate is confirmed, if I could get something useful for him.

LADDER- In deeper leagues, Javon Ringer is worth adding. If CJ0.5K can’t get it going against Indianapolis, his job might be up for grabs… Didn’t think we’d be saying THAT this year.

SNAKE- Peyton Hillis might be one some people were expecting to be climbing a ladder with his return from injury, but Montario Hardesty is a guy I’ve written about since preseason. He’s a legitimate threat, at the very least as a platoon to Hillis. Hillis might play this week but is unlikely to regain full-time carries, so if Hardesty plays well, they might split carries for more than one week.

LADDER- Ben Tate is still the #2 back in Houston, but 15 carries for 104 yards last week was not just a result of garbage time. He was involved in the game from the outset. He’s a flex option if you have starters on bye weeks, and if Arian Foster went down again, Tate would jump into the top 15 of RB.

SNAKE- We thought he’d awoken with a huge game in week 6, but Rashard Mendenhall fell back to Earth in week 7 against the “fearsome” Arizona Cardinals defense. Pittsburgh seems to prefer the ball in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands.

LADDER- Knowshon Moreno is getting one more chance to prove he can play like the first round pick he was with Willis McGahee injured. Lance Ball is lurking in the shadows and will see some work in this week’s game, more so if Moreno can’t do it.

SNAKE- Tashard Choice was a guy I liked a lot in the preseason but with Murray’s performance last week, it seems Choice has fallen to third among Dallas runners.

LADDER- Dez Bryant’s 90 yards and a score, when compared to Miles Austin’s meager showing, would seem to suggest Tony Romo has chosen his top target. And it’s always been the case, if one of them were to emerge the top guy, he would be a top-10 WR. If Bryant stays atop the Cowboys passing game, he has that upside.

SNAKE- Brandon Marshall… listen, Chad Henne is done. Matt Moore is now hurt and JP Losman is taking snaps as the Dolphins top quarterback option right now.

LADDER- The injury to Santana Moss makes Jabar Gaffney the defacto top target in Washington. Remember John Beck is still the starter there to temper your expectations. And that team will run a ton.

SNAKE- Joe Flacco lost to the Jaguars and looked ugly doing it.

LADDER- Christian Ponder looked surprisingly good in his debut. He’s not startable yet, unless your man is on a bye, but he’s worth watching.

SNAKE- Colts… they’re just bad. Pierre Garcon is the ONLY playable player in a standard league.

LADDER- Demaryius Thomas was the favorite target of Tim Tebow. While I like Tebow as a fantasy QB, his lackluster passing ability limits his receivers, so don’t go overboard on Thomas or Eric Decker.

SNAKE- Andre Johnson reportedly felt a tug in his hamstring at practice yesterday. We don’t know more yet, but it’s not good for owners banking on his return this week. It does give Jacoby Jones another interesting week.

LADDER- For deeper leagues, Braylon Edwards is coming back this week, and playing his former employers, the Browns.

SNAKE- Rob Gronkowski… A lot of people love this guy. And I was about to attempt to trade for him, when I looked at his game log for this season. His numbers are bloated by huge performances in the first three weeks of the season. He had 281 yards and five scores in the first three games of this season. Since then, he has 120 yards and no touchdowns. There will be weeks where defenses focus on Aaron Hernandez and Gronk grabs a touchdown, but he’s not the top tight end on his own team, so I doubt he’s a top-10 TE in fantasy.

Thats it for now. Q&A will be up this afternoon.

With Fred Jackson on bye, I got 40 each from Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson. I got a pleasant surprise in 20 points from Ben Tate‘s 100 yards rushing. Steve Smith made his debut for my team with 28 points. I won 170-152 and improved to 6-1. I haven’t lost since week one, but the player I was most excited about on my team wasn’t even starting on my team.

I watched in agony as the Broncos handcuffed Tim Tebow for three and a half quarters, forcing him to hand off into eight man fronts all afternoon, and yet, down 15-0, they were forced to let him play and he did not disappoint. For fantasy purposes, he scored 32 points on my bench.

This coming week, my only starter on bye is Rodgers, so Tebow will start against Detroit. With Peterson and Jackson back together, I think my chances are good to keep the streak going.

I’ve been asking around about tight end upgrades, with Dallas Clark not doing anything, but my team is very top-heavy, so I don’t have the kind of players I would be dealing for a consistent TE. At this point, I’m not in a big rush anyway.