Yes, it is STILL too early to freak out…
Justin, Delaware: Dude! I’m 0-2 and my team needs a boost. I’ve been offered Daniel Bard and Melky Cabrera for Tim Lincecum. Do it while Timmy has some value left, right?
Justin… Lincecum has a K/9 over 10. His xFip is under three and his BABIP is sky high. All that being said, Bard is headed back to the bullpen, where he belongs, and Lincecum will be a top-10 SP by year’s end. Have some patience.
Uri, New Mexico: I’m 0-2 and struggling in a long term keeper league. When is it early enough to start bailing on 2012 to get ahead for 2013?
Uri, I was 0-5 last year in an 18-team keeper due to a slew of critical injuries and some poor pitching. If I had gotten the right offer, I may have jumped ship at that point, but I held on, went 13-3 over the next 16 weeks and only missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker for the last spot. Weeks five to seven are about the time, in a keeper league, where I could start looking to next year. I wouldnt even consider it before 0-5 or 1-6 start. And seasonal leagues, you may as well play it out all the way. You never know.
Claire, Indiana: Can you take a fantasy football question? What rookies do you see having an impact for 2013, if any?
Well Claire, with the draft this week, I will take some football questions. And if you’ve read my blog before, you know I hate rookies in general. I think Andrew Luck will land somewhere between No. 13 and 18 on my initial QB rankings, and Robert Griffin III will probably be in the same range. I don’t think either will be great right away. I will probably have Griffin higher initially due to his running ability, but I think Luck will be better long term. Side note, I like Kellen Moore to have a great career if he lands behind a good solid veteran (maybe Peyton Manning) and has a couple years to learn.
Nathan, Michigan: Josh Hamilton has seven home runs. Dee Gordon has eight steals. Gordon is on pace for around 85 steals and Hamilton for 70 HR. Who gets closer?
Gordon and its not close. I’ve been a believer since the preseason in Gordon’s speed. Gordon has an atrocious .277 on base percentage. If that even gets to .310, he’ll that that many more opportunities and he is that fast. If he plays 150 games, I’d put the minimum at 60 steals, with a ceiling around 80-85. Meanwhile, if Hamilton plays 140 games, he will be the AL MVP, and I’m not betting he does. I’d put the over/under games played around 120, with excellent production in that time. Pay for top-15 overall per-game production, but only for 75% of the games played.
Kevin, California: If Mike Trout is up May 15 (just guessing) then what does he do this year? I’m getting all kinds of offers for him. Own him in a keeper league (unlimited contract for a 12th round pick) as well as a seasonal league.
I guess it depends on what you’re being offered, but to answer your question, if he is up May 15… The Angels return from a road trip and start a home series with Oakland on May 14. May 14 would be the Angels 36th game of the season. Considering predictable off days, let’s say 115 games… I would expect around .270, 13 home runs, maybe 20 steals and 60 runs scored. Those seem like reasonable numbers. He can fly, has some pop, and should bat high in the order. The Angels have already said he will only be called up to play everyday. In the keeper league, I’d have to be blown away to trade him, considering you can keep this probable superstar at that price.
Angel, Omaha: Football question, Trent Richardson to Cleveland and Justin Blackmon to St. Louis… which would you rather have?
Richardson, not close. I think IF both of these scenarios play out, Blackmon will get constant double teams in St. Louis and Sam Bradford is good, not necessarily great. Meanwhile, Richardson looks like he could be in line for AT LEAST half the carries (with Montario Hardesty getting 40% of the rest), but Richardson could emerge to get 60-70% of the Browns carries if he starts off well.
That’s all for now, friends. Keep the questions coming. I’ll have a new Walking the Walk up soon, and some other stuff coming up.